More Leverage to Buy, Tighter Window to Sell

The market shifted a bit this week, and it cuts both ways depending on which side of the deal you're on.

Rates are climbing again. The 30-year fixed is sitting at 6.71%, and several forecasters are now flagging a real chance it tops 7% this fall on sticky inflation and rising Treasury yields. Worth factoring into your exit assumptions, not just your purchase math.

Inventory just hit a 4-year high. New listings rose 2.1% week-over-week to their highest level since August 2022. But demand isn't keeping up — pending sales went negative year-over-year for the first time in eight months, and price-cut rates are now running above last year's pace for the first time in 2026.

What that means for you: more inventory and more price cuts equal more negotiating leverage when you're sourcing your next deal. Sellers are more flexible than they've been in years. But don't assume that flexibility carries through to your buyer on the other end — with rates moving up, not down, the exit is getting tighter, not easier. Conservative ARVs and realistic hold times matter more right now than they did six months ago.

One bright spot close to home: New Jersey is one of the strongest-appreciating states in the country — up 5.0% year-over-year, well above the 1.4% national average, with the Northeast broadly outperforming. If you're sourcing in-state, that's a tailwind working in your favor.

Bottom line: good conditions to buy right, tighter margin for error on the back end. If you're underwriting something and want a second set of eyes on the numbers, I'm happy to jump in.